SCOTT DETROW, HOST:
In addition to his focus on Chicago, President Trump took to social media this weekend to post about global politics as well. He wrote, quote, "we've lost India and Russia to deepest, darkest China." This comes after quite an eventful week in China, where leaders from those two countries and about two dozen others attended a summit and a military parade.
Russian President Vladimir Putin was there, and just as images were beamed around the world of Putin and Xi Jinping shaking hands, European leaders announced a plan to defend Ukraine from future invasions in the event of a ceasefire. But Russian forces continue to bombard Ukraine.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)
PRESIDENT VLADIMIR PUTIN: (Speaking Russian).
DETROW: "They will be legitimate targets," Putin said yesterday about Western troops if they were to appear in Ukraine. For some insight into Putin's calculations and why this week of forging closer ties with China matters for the U.S. and Ukraine, we are joined now by Alexander Gabuev, the director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. Welcome.
ALEXANDER GABUEV: Thanks for having me, Scott.
DETROW: What did the imagery tell you? I mean, these summits - a lot of meetings happen, there's a lot of decisions made, but sometimes the most lasting thing is just the images. We saw Putin and Xi and other world leaders from North Korea and India warmly standing with each other, talking with each other and then of course viewing this massive military parade in China. What stood out to you?
GABUEV: First of all, if anybody in the West wants to believe that Putin is isolated, look again at all of these images. He is hugging with Xi Jinping. He's hugging with the prime minister of the most popular democracy in the world - that's India - and he's very much welcome. And then he's positioning alongside Xi Jinping, sitting right next to him on his right-hand side. And being all the time very close shows that among these leaders that Xi Jinping welcomes, he's definitely the most welcome leader and the most senior among China's junior partners.
DETROW: Like you said, Russia and China have had a closer relationship than other countries in recent years. Putin feels comfortable there. How much has that relationship, how much has that partnership changed in the last few years since the war in Ukraine began?
GABUEV: I think that this relationship has been mutually beneficial, really long-term oriented but increasingly asymmetrical. And that what war has changed about this relationship - that it's now an asymmetry on steroids, where China has much more leverage and has all the cards that Russia really doesn't.
DETROW: Is that just economically, militarily, other factors?
GABUEV: I think, first and foremost, it's economically. China provides 40% of Russian imports, both civilian needs and the needs of the Russian military machine, all of the dual-use goods. All of the equipment that Russia needs to manufacture its weapons that it uses then to kill Ukrainians comes from China. The financial lifeline, use of Chinese yuan to pay for this stuff and also use yuan to trade with other countries because Russia doesn't have access to U.S. dollar or euro or British pound. And then tech - Russia is technologically pretty backward and definitely doesn't possess the cutting-edge tech that only China can provide.
DETROW: Given all of what you just said, what do you think Putin's goal for this past week was? What do you think his priorities are when he looks at the Russia-China relationship from Russia's point of view?
GABUEV: Vladimir Putin is a survivor, so keeping China close, keeping China happy and making sure that China continues to provide this support level that they've been doing throughout this war is crucial for him. And to me, it looks like he has secured it because Xi Jinping is also interested in having Russia as a junior partner, an asset in this long-term confrontation with the United States.
Second point, which is also important for Putin, is really image of a strong man that is treated as an equal by leaders like Xi Jinping and Modi. Chinese leaders know that Russians have an outsized, very wounded ego that's very vulnerable, and they are happy to massage this ego and show all of the theatrics of symbolic equality while, at the same time, really being the boss in the relationship.
DETROW: Why does the China-Russia relationship matter to the United States?
GABUEV: I think that in objective world, Russia is an important player that is just not very easy to discount. And people can say, like, yeah, its economy - size of Spain. It's just a giant gas tank with nuclear weapons. But if you look at the geography, if you look at the amount of nuclear weapons, it is not a country that you can simply discount. So if these two powers are getting closely aligned against you, that's not good.
The problem is what you do about that, and President Trump seems to have this idea that he can create space for Mr. Putin to move away from China's embrace and become maybe team America, which won't happen because Vladimir Putin really distrusts American leadership. He knows that President Trump might be out of the picture in 3 1/2 years, after the next election. He is deeply skeptical about the American leadership, and he feels much more at ease with a like-minded authoritarian leader like Xi Jinping than with any American president, including Donald Trump.
DETROW: Given that, did you pick up any specific message to the United States and the West from these meetings, from these parades, from these gatherings?
GABUEV: I think that Xi Jinping wanted to send a message that there is an alternative order that's not based on rules written by America but based on international law, which is ironic because we know that, well, the U.S. is not innocent of violating U.N. charter, but his guest of honor, Vladimir Putin, is blatantly violating U.N. charter in front of everybody, and he's getting a pass by China. And then China is also not treating its U.N. treaty obligations seriously when it comes to its maritime disputes with neighbors like Philippines. But nevertheless, this message into the Global South, that there is an alternative with China, is there.
And then second message is that China can get much more friendly with all of the countries alienated by Donald Trump through his tariffs war. And the rapprochement between India and China is a very good example here.
DETROW: Alexander Gabuev, the director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, thank you so much for talking to us.
GABUEV: Thank you so much. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.
