ANDREW LIMBONG, HOST:
All right. We've spent much of this hour unpacking the U.S. entering the war between Israel and Iran. To better understand the big-picture stakes, we've called Robin Wright. She's a journalist who's written a number of books on the Middle East, including "The Last Great Revolution: Turmoil And Transformation In Iran," and she joins me now. Hi, Robin.
ROBIN WRIGHT: Hi, Andrew.
LIMBONG: Did this bombing by the Trump administration surprise you?
WRIGHT: I think there's been momentum over the last three or four days headed in this direction, so it kind of became (ph) inevitable. The scope of it, I think, was a surprise - that the United States went after three targets. And of course, we don't know the extent of the damage yet, but this is clearly a military setback for Iran's nuclear program.
LIMBONG: Let's talk about endgame here from both President Trump and Netanyahu. Is there any daylight between the two of them there?
WRIGHT: Well, Prime Minister Netanyahu has repeatedly talked about regime change. His defense minister has said that the supreme leader could no longer exist. I think that Israel implicitly has broader aims than simply military. And President Trump made clear in his address to the nation that this, he hoped, would be a one-and-done and that Iran would come back to the negotiating table immediately and basically surrender.
Now, remember, Iran does have a right to a civilian, peaceful nuclear energy program as a member of the Non-Proliferation Treaty. But the bottom line is that both the United States and Israel want Iran not to have any capability to enrich uranium for any purpose. So there's a gap between the two leaders in Israel and the United States, and it's unclear how each of them might proceed if Iran doesn't cave.
LIMBONG: Iran is used to taking the long view, and sometimes I think here in the U.S., we kind of forget the scope of history. I think that's a fair assessment. You know, there's that adage, the enemy also gets a vote. Is that something we should be keeping in mind here?
WRIGHT: Well, absolutely. First of all, Iran - or the Islamic Republic since its 1979 revolution - has survived an eight-year war with Iraq. It faced many different challenges, politically, economically, militarily, and the supreme leader is still in power. The system still exists. And you have to look at the broader society and culture. The majority of Iranians are Shiite, and their religion is based on the idea of that it's better to die fighting injustice than to live with injustice. And there's a minority mentality in Iran. Ethnically, Iranians are a minority. In terms of their Muslim sect, they are a minority. So there are, on many fronts, that instinct of survival and feeling like you're perpetually the victim and that you need to stand up against those attacking or repressing you.
LIMBONG: All right, I want to zoom out a bit. Who are the winners from the attack on yesterday outside of Israel? I'm wondering, like, what is China thinking today?
WRIGHT: China has watched as the United States was bogged down, arming Israel for the war on Gaza, its attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon. China has also watched as the United States has been engaged in rearming Ukraine. Several presidents in the 21st century have talked about China really is the priority and the greatest threat long term to the United States, and there has been nothing to hamper China, which has territorial ambitions when it comes to Taiwan.
LIMBONG: What about Russia? Iranian drones have been a key weapon used against Ukraine, and Iran's foreign minister's now headed to meet with Putin. What's Russia likely to do next?
WRIGHT: It's very interesting, and that's a good question because Iran has been critical to Russia's campaign against Ukraine. It has provided hundreds, even thousands of drones to Russia, and they have been used brutally against Ukrainian civilian targets, some military as well. And the question is, can Iran provide more drones to Russia? Or has Russia built up a capacity with the help of Iranian technology on its own to continue the kind of drone attacks that have been critical in the war in Ukraine?
So Russia has been an ally of Iran, but they are also very different kinds of governments, and even Vladimir Putin doesn't want to see Iran, which is not too far away, have a nuclear capability. And that was the one thing the world's six major powers agreed on in 2015, even though there were tensions back then over Ukraine and Russia's occupation of Crimea.
LIMBONG: There's a lot of attention today on whether Iran might retaliate against U.S. service members or soft targets in the region. But Iran has always fought in a sort of, like, asymmetrical fashion. What do you think we should expect now?
WRIGHT: Iran, since its 1979 revolution, has used asymmetric tactics over and over against what it views as its enemies. It used the first suicide bombs against Israel in Lebanon and then against two U.S. embassies and the Marine peacekeepers in Lebanon in the 1980s. It engaged in hostage takings, including some of my friends in Lebanon and as well at the U.S. embassy in Tehran. It has gone after Saudi Arabia's oil facilities, so it is not going to engage in reaction that is tit for tat in terms of military sophistication. It has the ability to go after regionally - whether it's some of the 40,000 U.S. forces in the Middle East or U.S. and Israeli targets elsewhere in the world.
LIMBONG: Knowing Iran as well as you do, where are you going to be keeping an eye out for the next couple days?
WRIGHT: I wouldn't be surprised if Iran retaliated in some way and then sent a message that it didn't want to see a war escalate. I think Iran wants this over. I think it wants diplomacy. The problem is, even if all parties get to the negotiating table, can they really come up with an arrangement that all sides can accept? So that's really the most important thing. This conflict will not end militarily. It has to have some kind of diplomatic outcome that will ensure there are no further flash points about what Iran is doing militarily.
LIMBONG: That's journalist Robin Wright, author of "The Last Great Revolution: Turmoil And Transformation In Iran." Robin, thank you so much.
WRIGHT: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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