The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced last week that El Niño has officially developed and will play a role in shaping the weather patterns around the world into next year.
El Niño is a regular climate phenomenon in the eastern Pacific Ocean when water temperatures near the equator are at least a half-degree Fahrenheit above the historical average for a three-month period.
“A mode of natural variability,” North Carolina State Climatologist Dr. Kathie Dello explained, “So, it happens regardless of climate change. But when you add the human caused warming on top of it some of the impacts from El Nino can also be amplified.”
Dello said the El Nino period often reduces the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic, but because climate change has warmed the water temperature it’s not clear how the hurricane season will turn out.
“El Nino will suppress the trade winds and shear off hurricanes, but, again, it's just one piece of the puzzle. The water temperatures are certainly part of it, and we're hoping for a quiet hurricane season here in North Carolina, but we still need to be prepared, El Nino or not.
Dello does say next winter is likely to be less mild than our last one.
“Here in North Carolina. El Nino can be a little bit cooler and wetter in the winter, but it doesn't always work out that way.”
And she added that climate change is already having a noticeable impact on eastern North Carolina.
“So, we're seeing warm nights here in North Carolina and in eastern North Carolina, and while that doesn't sound like a bad thing, we have a lot of people who maybe work outside all day and then come home and don't have access to cooling,” Dello said, “Or some of our crops need cool temperatures overnight to actually thrive, like stone fruits and berries. So, we're seeing the impacts from those warm overnight temperatures.”
NOAA says there is an 84% chance that El Nino will become at least moderately strong by the end of 2023 or the start of 2024, meaning that it will have a bigger influence on weather patterns.
