RACHEL MARTIN, HOST:
This fall's election could change control of the U.S. Senate.
STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
Of the dozens of Senate seats up for grabs, Republicans need a net gain of six, and they're within reach. And we're going to talk about this with Cokie Roberts, who joins us most Mondays. Hi, Cokie.
COKIE ROBERTS, BYLINE: Hi, how are you, Steve, Rachel?
INSKEEP: Doing fine, thanks.
MARTIN: Hey, Cokie. We're also joined by Robert Costa. He covers politics for The Washington Post. Robert, thanks for coming in.
ROBERT COSTA: Good morning.
MARTIN: Cokie, we're going to start with you. It doesn't feel like this election has captured public attention, to put it mildly. Should it? I mean, could the GOP synch a takeover in the Senate?
ROBERTS: Oh, sure. I mean, all things being equal, they will. Now, we can have big surprises. There's always some surprise in an election year, but if you just look at the map and look at the president's approval ratings, it's very hard for the Democrats to hold on.
INSKEEP: Well, let's talk about looks in the field. Robert Costa, you've been reporting on a lot of races around the country. Does it feel like something is happening when you're traveling around?
COSTA: I think Cokie's right. There's not a central issue that's emerging. But everywhere I go, whether it's Iowa, New Hampshire or the Midwest or the Deep South, you sense a frustration with Washington. And I think you see that reflected in this brewing populism. The most popular surrogates for the Democrats are people like Elizabeth Warren, who fire up the base, talk about the growing disparity between the rich and the poor. And on the right, it's Rand Paul, who has somewhat of anti-establishment message. How that plays out makes this election at this moment - even weeks away - a little murky.
ROBERTS: That frustration with Washington, I think, just keeps growing because you see - for instance, right now with Ebola, there's this sense of, why isn't the government doing more? And then, you know, the Secret Service, the Veterans Administration - all of that has people thinking that it's just kind of a hapless government. And then you have the tremendous unpopularity of the president given even the good jobs numbers that came out last Friday. But, you know, when the president went out last week and said, I'm not on the ballot, but my policies are, Republicans danced in glee and made ads within 24 hours. A bunch of ads were up quoting the president saying his policies were up because they think that helps them.
INSKEEP: How, if at all, is this populism different than three or four years ago when the Tea Party movement was so huge? It's backed off a little bit, but you're saying there's still this sense of frustration. Is it different than it was? You're talking about people saying they want the government to do more rather than the government to get out of their lives.
COSTA: I think that's right, Steve. I think the big difference between now and 2010 is that there's more activity on the left. It hasn't become entirely coherent, but you're seeing labor leaders, community organizers - usually they're silent in a midterm cycle. But the Democrats in some of these key Rust Belt states, they're out there on the ground. And even in places like Alaska, Democrats have done a better job of organizing this year. And I think the right is also frustrated, but the problem with the Republicans is coming out of Congress, there's so much dissension within the ranks. They don't really have a clear contract for America this year; there's no agenda that they're really trying to sell.
ROBERTS: Their agenda is anti-Obama; that's the agenda. And they're painting every Democrat as an Obama-clone. I mean, it's instructive that the one Republican who's in real trouble who's holding a seat right now is Pat Roberts in Kansas. Now, there are all kinds of reasons for that - he's waged a terrible campaign, he doesn't live in the state, all of those things. But it's also true that the person who's running against him is an Independent, not a Democrat. And though the Republicans are trying desperately to paint Greg Orman as a closet Democrat who would vote with Obama and Harry Reid, he is not a Democrat. And that's making it easier for him.
MARTIN: So what does this mean for the president if the Republicans win and win big? How does that affect what he does moving forward?
COSTA: It's going to be a sea change on Capitol Hill if Republicans take the Senate, and they're actually expected to maybe even get some gains in the House. You see John Boehner in recent weeks, he's been going to Maine, upstate New York. They think they can actually add to their number. You're going to see the president being forced to grapple with his second term. Can he come up with any kind of deal with a Republican majority in both chambers? And from - when I talk to the people, key Democrats and key Republicans, they think tax reform in early 2015 could be something that becomes an issue that both sides can rally behind.
ROBERTS: Yeah, tax reform is absolutely the one that is at the top of the list. Now, if the Democrats hold on to the Senate part of the reason for that will be big turnout by Hispanics, African-Americans, women. And you would then see policies aimed at those groups getting through in the Senate because Republicans would be looking at those same constituencies - particularly Hispanics and women - for 2016 when they're in much worse shape on the map going into those Senate races, not to mention the presidential contest.
INSKEEP: Although in a couple of sentences, I suppose if Democrats keep the Senate, they've still got Republicans in the House, things may not change that much for the president.
ROBERTS: I think that's right. I don't think things change much, and I think the president then tries to do more around the Congress instead of with the Congress, and that becomes something of a constitutional problem.
INSKEEP: Cokie, thanks very much.
ROBERTS: Thank you.
INSKEEP: That's Cokie Roberts, who joins us most Mondays. Robert Costa reports for The Washington Post. Thanks for coming by.
COSTA: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.