This week, voters in Iowa caucused for their preferred Presidential candidate, setting the tone for what could be a tight race on both sides.
North Carolina’s Democratic and Republican primaries for crucial federal and state positions, including President and Governor, is less than 40 days away.
Chris Thomas spoke with state pollsters and a local party official, who weighed in on how a caucus held more than 1,000 miles away could impact turnout and results here in North Carolina.
For what seemed like an eternity, the eyes of the nation were fixed on Iowa, the first state to hold preliminary elections for President of the United States.
After its caucus Monday, Ted Cruz emerged as the overall winner in the Republican Race, beating front runner Donald Trump by a little more than 3 percent. Meanwhile, national front runner in the Democratic Race, Hillary Clinton, had a close shave, winning by a third of a percent.
And though it’s a long way between the cornfields of Iowa and North Carolina’s Tobacco Road, Dr. Kenneth Fernandez of Elon University believes local voters sat up and paid attention to the results.
“I think North Carolinians, and just the average voter, they’re listening, they’re watching, they’re consuming information and they are making adjustments to their preferences and their vote intention.”
Fernandez, a political science teacher at Elon and the director of the institution’s polling service, said political surveys have become a more difficult prospect than in years past and predicting results is much harder, especially in an era where screening calls is easier than ever.
“Response rates that used to be 60 percent…there’s a national average of 6 percent.”
Cruz’s victory was credited, in large part, to a surge of votes from the “evangelical bloc” of the Republican Party, though some polls saw Trump’s support among evangelicals on the rise – he even received an endorsement from Liberty University President Jerry Fallwel, Jr. in January.
Despite that, one of the Cruz’s most loyal followings held true in Iowa.
“I think he did very well for the exact factors you stated, the evangelical vote.”
According to Pew Research Center, Evangelical Protestants make up the lion’s share of the adult population in North Carolina – 35 percent. Fernandez believes Cruz can capitalize on his conservative, religious appeal in the Old North State.
Elon’s took its last poll in October and showed Cruz tied for third with Sen. Marco Rubio with 10 percent, up 4 points from the previous poll taken in September, showing the Senator from Texas gaining steam well before the Iowa Caucuses.
“And we saw Cruz building up some momentum and I think you started to see right around that time in October, November, Cruz started doing better in the polls.”
But Francis De Luca, president of the Civitas Institute based in Raleigh, said other, major demographics within the GOP played crucial roles in helping Cruz pick up the lion’s share of Iowa’s Republican delegates.
“He also did very well with people self-identified as very conservative and that’s the other place he’s drawing strength from and I think in North Carolina that will help him a lot because…about 40 plus percent of the people in both parties identify themselves as conservatives and there’s a very big conservative base.”
Another factor to consider during the primaries is racial diversity. Iowa is a much more racially homogenous state than North Carolina. More than 90 percent of Iowans are white, whereas about a fifth of North Carolinians are black, according to the Census Bureau.
This is likely to make Bernie Sanders’ run for the White House much harder as attention focuses to the south since opponent Hillary Clinton is overwhelmingly popular among racial minorities.
In a recent Public Policy Poll, 77 percent of black voters support Hillary Clinton and 81 percent of those polled have a favorable opinion of her – whereas Sanders only has a 43 percent approval rating in the same demographic.
“And in the Democratic Primary, they [black voters] make up an oversized part of the vote in terms of their actual numbers because of their registration in the Democratic Party. So, unless he can find a way to appeal to those voters, he’s going to have a hard time winning (or) doing well, as he’s done so far, in Southern States, so that’s his challenge, really, moving forward.”
Less than 40 days separates North Carolina from its place in the national, political spotlight, which it will share with other big states, including Florida, Ohio, and Missouri.
But, with only one primary election, which was in Iowa, under the country’s belt, and the priorities of many North Carolinians, DeLuca believes the race is far from decided.
“The average person in North Carolina does not live and breathe politics. They are raising children, working, going to church, taking care of their families, and politics falls somewhere way down on the list of things they’re worried about. So, trying to make any assumptions at this point…you’re better off going to Vegas and putting money on the roulette wheel.”
North Carolina’s Republican and Democratic Primary elections are March 15.
Several local chapters of the North Carolina Republican Party were reached for comment without success.
I’m Chris Thomas.