Sabato’s Crystal Ball has shifted North Carolina’s First and 11th Congressional District races from toss-ups to “Leans Democratic,” giving Democrats an edge in two closely watched contests for the U.S. House.
The October 20 ratings change affects the race between Democratic Congressman Don Davis and Republican Laurie Buckhout in the First District, which includes much of eastern North Carolina.
Davis narrowly defeated Buckhout in 2024. But President Donald Trump carried the district by about 11-and-a-half percentage points that year.
In the 11th District, Democrat Jamie Ager is challenging Republican Jennifer Balkcom for an open seat after Republican Congressman Chuck Edwards withdrew from the race.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball says its changes reflect a broader national shift in the political environment, as Democrats seek to regain control of the House.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball is a nonpartisan political analysis and election forecasting newsletter published by the University of Virginia Center for Politics. It tracks and rates competitive congressional, gubernatorial and presidential races nationwide.
Other election analysts continue to rate both North Carolina races as toss-ups.
Voters will decide the races November third.
