A shortage of immigrant labor is challenging the economies of North Carolina's urban metros.
A new report by the Kenan Institute for Private Enterprise at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill explores how a drop in international net migration is cutting into the labor supply for essential labor-intensive industries, and what could be done about it.
In North Carolina, this means tens of thousands fewer foreign-born people migrated to the metropolitan areas of Raleigh, Durham, Charlotte and Greensboro in 2025 compared to the year before, according to Census figures.
In the Triangle metro alone, there were nearly 10,000 fewer international migrants in 2025 over the year prior, impacting immigrant-dense industries such as construction, hospitality, manufacturing and care for children and the elderly.
Current trends show fewer foreign workers are choosing to come to the United States to work, and more are choosing to leave voluntarily from North Carolina, including through self-deportation.
This is due largely to expanded federal immigration enforcement under President Donald Trump, and by extension to immigration enforcement laws recently enacted in North Carolina, such as House Bill 10 and Senate Bill 153.
"All of these different factors are contributing to reduced (immigration) inflows and increased outflows, and I think that makes it likely that labor shortages will continue," said Sarah Dickerson, research professor at the Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise and author of the report.
Recent U.S. Census Bureau data show international migration to the U.S. dropped historically from 2.7 million to 1.3 million in the period from July 2024 through June 2025.
Foreign-born people participate in the workforce at higher rates than those born in the U.S.
In 2022, labor force participation for foreign-born individuals averaged 68.6% compared to 59.8% for those native-born, according to the North Carolina Department of Commerce.
"Businesses and consumers are likely to feel these effects through a tighter labor market and higher costs," said Dickerson.
That's because immigrants make up higher shares of employment in industries like construction. In the Raleigh-Durham metro, construction accounts for 5.7% of employment and 4.7% of the metro's GDP. That's higher than national averages, according to Kenan Institute estimates of federal labor data.
To address these labor gaps in the short term, the Kenan Institute report proposes automation and artificial intelligence strategies in areas such as logistics. These could include accelerated training programs to prepare American workers for high-demand jobs.
"Again, there's a challenge in that some native-born workers don't always want the vacated roles," Dickerson said.
Such roles include high-demand jobs for homebuilding companies, which could translate to housing market strains, Dickerson added.
Brian Turmail of Associated General Contractors of America foresaw this issue, telling WFAE last year that "not only are you going to get higher no-show rates, but you’re going to have more and more firms that don’t have enough people to bid on construction projects."
