A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
Nebraska is holding its primary today. One key race that could help determine the balance of power in the House is in the state's 2nd Congressional District. That seat has been held by Republican Congressman Don Bacon since 2017. But with his retirement, Democrats see the race as an opportunity to pick up a seat in a red state. Molly Ashford from Nebraska Public Media joins us from Omaha. So, Molly, why do Democrats think they have a chance in this district?
MOLLY ASHFORD, BYLINE: Well, Nebraska's 2nd District is pretty politically diverse. It's sometimes called the blue dot, since Nebraska is one of two states that awards electoral votes by congressional district, and voters in the district have awarded that single vote to Democrats in the last two presidential elections. Bacon has proven to be hard to beat, even in great years for Democrats at the presidential level. He's more moderate. And he's bucked President Trump on some issues like tariff power and funding for Ukraine. So with his retirement, Democrats think they finally have an opportunity to flip it.
MARTÍNEZ: OK. Will Republicans, you think, continue to run on that more moderate platform?
ASHFORD: There's only one person running for the Republican nomination. His name is Brinker Harding. He is currently the vice president of Omaha's city council. And he's actually embracing Trump and MAGA messaging far more than Bacon ever has. He's received a full endorsement from Trump and is part of a national MAGA majority program to elect Trump-aligned Republicans. Bacon, on the other hand, has been criticized by Trump for years.
MARTÍNEZ: What have you heard from voters?
ASHFORD: Voters from both parties are feeling pretty confident about their chances in November. Here's Emily Anderson (ph), who says this is the best chance Dems have had to flip the seat since she moved to Nebraska eight years ago.
EMILY ANDERSON: This is definitely, I feel like, the best shot we've ever had. It seems the most promising. And it really, obviously, helps that Don Bacon retired.
ASHFORD: And here's John Nelson (ph), who put his Harding yard sign out early. Nelson says he thinks Harding will try to emulate Bacon's moderate approach, even if he has to campaign to the right so that he doesn't alienate Trump voters.
JOHN NELSON: He is moderate on things. He's thoughtful, reasonable. He's got experience, and I think he's a level head.
ASHFORD: Now, Nelson also said that Republicans' chances of holding the seat in November could be dependent on who Democrats pick today in the primary.
MARTÍNEZ: And what does the Democratic race look like?
ASHFORD: It's a crowded and contentious and expensive primary for Democrats. There will be seven Democratic names on the ballot today. The two candidates seen as the front-runners are John Cavanaugh, who's a state representative in the Nebraska legislature, and Denise Powell, who started and ran a PAC to elect female candidates at the state level. The district is not a stranger to contested primaries. But there have been millions of outside PAC dollars poured into advertising in this race, which is definitely out of the ordinary.
Most of that has come from Democratic groups supporting Powell or opposing Cavanaugh, though a Republican PAC has also run anti-Cavanaugh ads in the last week of the race. A lot of the ads from these PACs have focused on potential legislative consequences if Cavanaugh wins. If he gets sent to Washington, the Republican governor would get to appoint a replacement to finish out his term. And even though Republicans have a supermajority already, some Democrats worry losing a seat in a reliable district could have consequences at the statehouse, including potentially changing how the state votes for president to eliminate that blue dot.
MARTÍNEZ: All right. That's Nebraska Public Media's Molly Ashford in Omaha. Molly, thanks.
ASHFORD: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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