The latest map from the N.C. Drought Management Advisory Council tells a stark story for Western North Carolina. Released Thursday, it shows the entire western region has reached extreme drought, the second-most severe category, with nearly all of the rest of the state in either severe or extreme drought. State climatologists say the region should not expect a quick fix.
The N.C. State Climate Office gathered experts from the council this week for a statewide briefing on what is driving the drought and what to expect next. Here are the highlights for Western North Carolina.
It has been building since last August
Assistant State Climatologist Corey Davis told the panel that while the past six weeks have felt brutally dry, this drought has been developing since mid-August of last year. A quiet hurricane season, a La Niña winter that pushed storm tracks north, and an April now on track to be the warmest on record in Asheville have combined to push rainfall deficits past 12 inches across most of the state. The last time far Western North Carolina was last in extreme drought was during 2016-17, when the region experienced a damaging fall fire season in the mountains.
"This is a big drought. It has been with us for a while and we're not going to get rid of this drought and its impacts with one event or even in one month," Davis said. "Ideally, we would like to start seeing, consistently, at least 1 to 2 inches of rain per week."
Water across the region: some buffer, but cracks are showing
Klaus Albertin with the N.C. Division of Water Resources told the panel that Western North Carolina's water picture is mixed. Reservoir operators held lake levels higher than normal going into winter, buying some cushion. But that buffer is shrinking fast.
Fontana Lake in Graham and Swain counties, one of the region's most important water sources, has the clearest example of the strain. Despite starting March more than five feet above its target level, Fontana is now more than seven feet below normal. The Tennessee Valley Authority, the federal agency that manages Fontana and other reservoirs in the far western corner of the state, has reached its minimum operating threshold, meaning it will begin reducing how much water it releases downstream.
For residents on private wells, the concern is just as real. According to the State Climate Office, a groundwater monitoring well in Bryson City is among 20 statewide currently at record low levels for the month. Albertin said shallow wells may begin operating sporadically or stop producing altogether if the drought continues.
Helene debris is adding to fire risk
N.C. Forest Service Fire Environment Forester Jamie Dunbar told the panel that the high country faces a compounding problem: the massive fuel load left behind by Hurricane Helene. Downed trees in places like Yancey County still have dried leaves attached, debris piles near homes continue to cure into prime fire fuel, and higher elevation forests are only at 30% to 40% of normal green-up. Fires in the mountains are also burning deep into the organic soil layer, a process that can take days to extinguish where water is scarce.
The statewide burn ban, in effect since March 28, covers all outdoor burning including backyard debris burns, campfires and fireworks. Dunbar said the ban will not lift until drought conditions meaningfully improve.
The forecast offers hope, but no quick relief
National Weather Service Hydrologist Barrett Smith told the panel that a weather pattern shift this weekend should bring the first meaningful rain in weeks, with the mountains standing a good chance of seeing more than the half inch to an inch forecast for most of the state. Davis cautioned that consistent rain over several months is what recovery actually requires, and that the next 30 days are critical.
What you can do right now
Even when rain returns, it will take several months of consistently above-normal precipitation to make a meaningful dent. In the meantime, the panel urged residents to follow water use guidance and burn ban restrictions, be aware of where their water comes from, and brace for brown lawns and struggling gardens for a while. Practical steps include watering before 10 a.m. to limit evaporation, fixing leaking faucets, and running full loads in dishwashers and washing machines.
For ongoing updates, check your local drought status at ncdrought.org, track fire danger forecasts at climate.ncsu.edu/fire, and sign up for weekly drought updates at go.ncsu.edu/droughtlist.
